From Caguan to Havana. The Peace Dialogue with FARC in Colombia: An Issue of Force Correlation

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to show in what way the context presented by the Colombian armed conflict with the FARC has responded to two very different contexts, in 1998 and in 2012, inviting them understand a different result. In Caguan, in 1998, peace was negotiated in the midst of war, with a boundless agenda, with a more belligerent than cooperative negotiating team of the guerrillas, and an increase of conflict by guerrilla and government. However, in 2012 the reality is quite different. This, with greater internationalization, with a negotiating more "political" team, with an agenda just five points, and most importantly, a different scene of war. For the first time it is possible to be optimistic. The differential factor in both cases is the correlation of forces. While in 1998 the FARC still hoped to be able to defeat the state, in 2012 it is an impossible dream. At the same time, the border entrenchment of the conflict has ended the great military achievements of the past and requires the government to think about the need for negotiations as the only way to disable the internal armed conflict.